Thursday, February 3, 2011

A dictionary of emotions .

How can the word 'jealousy' or 'pain' be explained using words ?

Or take this simple test ... Find the word that represents this :( From the Merriam Webster dictionary )

"a persistent disturbing preoccupation with an often unreasonable idea or feeling;
broadly : compelling motivation "

By the way the emotion or ..  the word is "obsession" .
We need a dictionary that not just says what it is .. but something that can evoke the emotion in itself after reading it ... that would be a dictionary of emotions . How about the above definition of obsession is rewritten in a more literary manner like ...

Obsession (n) : Once you look at it .. you cannot look back . It possesses you, you pursue it to the brink of insanity ... and beyond .... into madness ... and sometimes even to death .. The urge to venture ... to go to the end of the dark cave where no one ever dared to set foot - that is obsession .

How about having all the emotions written in such a manner ? That would be .... a dictionary of emotions.

Monday, September 6, 2010

How to make A Million from a buck in one year !

Betting is a relatively easy way to make a quick buck. Or is it ?
A disciplined investment plan for punters .

Can betting be built on a long term strategy ? Its a matter of discipline ... and patience and very high returns. What if we did have discipline ?

Introducing .......

*Drum Rolls*

.... the 5% compounding rule in Betting.

It works like this... You start off with 1£ on the first day.
You discipline yourself to bet and "earn" 5% of that amount the next day... and so on.
( assuming that a win in 2nd or 3rd round US open match between a top-seed player and an unseeded player will get you an easy 5-7 % - or on the other side , a win on either of the teams on a friendly football match between Argentina and Spain would bring you anywhere between 150-180% of the bet money - suite your risk appetite )
( - But we will just stick on to the 5%. - and why did I choose 5% rather than 3% ?, see the note at the bottom )

The amount gets compounded everyday. On day two , you bet your seed + win .. and it goes on. ( considering that you can endlessly find a supply of such low risk matches )

After the First 10 days, you will "earn" - £0.5
In the next 10 days, you will make around £1 and £1.6 in the next 10 days ..
well ... for the first 50 days , you will "earn" only about £9.9
And the Next 50 days , - £114 .
But if this goes on for a year .... A YEAR ..., ( if you have the steam to go on .. that is..) you would have made .... a whooping £51.6 Million ! ( i.e you would be raking in at the rate of £141,452 a single day ! )







Wait .. wait ... Something seems to be terribly wrong. Why doesnt this work ??? Hmm .. theoretically nothing stops it from working ! - Just like the Martingale System ! ( Read more about my experiments with Martingale System here )

Now that you instinctively say it wont work, Lets see why ..
1. You donot find low-risk matches all through out the year.
2. There is an upset loss somewhere . ( where a top-seed looses to an unseeded )
3. Greed - to risk more and win bigger and faster.
4. Beyond a point, the system caps the amount you can bet on a match
5. Human factor - Beyond a limit, a seemingly low-risk match would look like a high risk one ! ( Imagine .. half way down the year, betting £6500 - probably half your earnings )
6. Time required to choose the right matches to bet.
Why 5% ?
For my experiments, I started off with a seed capital of £25 and a 10% cumulative index, but I realised that somewhere between the 8th and the 10th day, things started reversing . ( i.e I made almost double the amount, but the time required to be invested and the risk did not seem to be proportional to the resultant returns )

So I thought why not 1% ? Consider this .. If you go by a 1% return model, using the above methodology, at the end of the year, you make around £38 !!! Where as, if you increase the return by 3% (of your seed), your returns at the end of the year will be close to £1.58 Million ! ( A return of close to 3.86% ( compounded ) would ensure that you would get a Million out of a buck in a year. )

What else can we do with the idea ?
1. A trust fund -
Consider this - A compounded 1% return would give you 38 times the seed money. That means A 0.2% returns ( compounded ) will give you 100% returns by the end of a year. -
Equivalent to a risk of a team loosing a football match ( in the last 5 minutes ) when it is 2-0 up at the 85th minute !! - Which is almost no risk at all !
Whats the best savings rate in a bank ? 5% ??
Whats the best returns on a fixed deposit in a bank ? 11 % ?
Whats the best returns on a favorable year on gold ? 30 % ??
Now whats the best that a share market can give you over a year ? 60 % ??
..
Remember .. these are all very optimistic figures. For an easy betting - The figure is 100% ! Beat that !
I would say ... its high time we bet on betting !

After Note : Fallacy of risk and return percentage
When you say, an increase in returns from say 3 % to 5% , it does not *definitely* mean that the risk has increased in the same basis points . More probably, the risk has more than doubled . ( quantifying this number is beyond the scope of this post )

Sunday, September 5, 2010

Building a Lucid Dreaming Machine

Almost 10 years ago, I came across this concept of lucid dreaming where one can have two way interaction with the self and the subconcious.
And then after much reading and searching , I came across the Kvasar dream mask. (LINK)

I wanted to build a more intuitive and biological one , since Iam no much of a electronics guy, I decided I would stay away from the circuitary and take the ideation part to myself .

Draft 1 :
So these are the things you need to do
1. Identify your REM state
2. feed in light and sound source ( intensity not high as to wake one up )
3. end the light and sound feed when out of REM phase

Research to be done
1. Can you elongate REM state ?
2. Do you necessarily go through an REM every sleeping session ?
3. Is it that REM necessarily means dreaming ? ( only that we dont remember them ? )

Friday, August 6, 2010

Bible as an instruction guide.

I was always interested in religions - particularly its effect on humans - when the clash of morality and pragmatism happens quite more often, like the clash of morality and scientific reasoning. ( think about Heinz dilemma )

So I set upon a quest to collect the rules and instructions mentioned in the bible - Not just the Ten Commandments - but a comprehensive listing of it - And tried to ask people what could be the possible punishment that could be given ( according to him ... and then compare with what the Testaments say )

eg : I ask " What do you think would be an apt punishment for a man who beats his male or female slave with a rod and if the slave dies ?"

Please Note : This is just a mere compilation of the rules and instructions found in the bible. This is not a critique.

Well - this could be a life long research , but Iam almost sure its worth the pursuit - Starting from the Ten Commandments . Here we go -

------------- The Ten Commandments -----------

1. You shall have no other gods before/besides me. ( deuteronomy 5:7 )
2. You shall not make for yourself an idol (deuteronomy 5:8 )
3. You shall not bow down to them or worship them ( idols )(deuteronomy 5:9 )
4. You shall not make wrongful use of the name of the Lord your God ( deuteronomy 5:11 )
5. Observe the sabbath day and keep it holy ( deuteronomy 5:12 )
6. (On the sabbath,) you shall not do any work—you, or your son or your daughter, or your male or female slave, or your ox or your donkey, or any of your livestock, or the resident alien in your towns ( deuteronomy 5:14 )
7. Honour your father and your mother ( deuteronomy 5:16 )
8. You shall not murder ( deuteronomy 5:17 )
9. Neither shall you commit adultery ( deuteronomy 5:18 )
10. Neither shall you steal. ( deuteronomy 5:19 )
11. Neither shall you bear false witness against your neighbour. ( deuteronomy 5:20 )
12. Neither shall you covet your neighbour’s wife. ( deuteronomy 5:21 )
13. Neither shall you desire your neighbour’s house, or field, or male or female slave, or ox, or donkey, or anything that belongs to your neighbour. ( deuteronomy 5:21 )

------------- Rules for Sabbath
14. Who ever does any work on the sabbath day must be put to death ( Exodus 31:15 )

----------------- New Testament ----------------

If your hand or your foot causes you to stumble, cut it off and throw it from you ( Mathew 18:8 )
If your eye causes you to stumble, pluck it out and throw it from you. ( Mathew 18:9 )
If your brother sins, go and show him his fault in private; if he listens to you, you have won your brother ( Mathew 18:15)
(Your brother can sin against you)up to seventy times seven. ( Till then you can forgive him) ( Mathew 18:22 )

Women should remain silent in the churches . If they want to inquire about something, they should ask their own husbands at home; for it is disgraceful for a woman to speak in the church (1 Corinthians 14 :34 )

I also want women to dress modestly, with decency and propriety, not with braided hair or gold or pearls or expensive clothes ( 1 Timothy 2:9 )

A woman should learn in quietness and full submission. 12I do not permit a woman to teach or to have authority over a man; she must be silent

I want men everywhere to lift up holy hands in prayer, without anger or disputing ( 1Timothy 2:8)

Buying land
'If you sell land to one of your countrymen or buy any from him, do not take advantage of each other. Leviticus 25:14
About Slavery
'Your male and female slaves are to come from the nations around you; from them you may buy slaves Leviticus 25:44
You may also buy some of the temporary residents living among you and members of their clans born in your country, and they will become your property. Leviticus 25:44

'If one of your countrymen becomes poor among you and sells himself to you, do not make him work as a slave. 40 He is to be treated as a hired worker or a temporary resident among you; he is to work for you until the Year of Jubilee (Leviticus 25:39-40)
Assaulting Slaves
"If a man beats his male or female slave with a rod and the slave dies as a direct result, he must be punished, 21 but he is not to be punished if the slave gets up after a day or two, since the slave is his property. (Exodus 21:20)

If a man hits a manservant or maidservant in the eye and destroys it, he must let the servant go free to compensate for the eye. 27 And if he knocks out the tooth of a manservant or maidservant, he must let the servant go free to compensate for the tooth. (Exodus 21:26)
Murder
Anyone who strikes a man and kills him shall surely be put to death (Exodus 21:12)

Cursing ones Father
Anyone who curses his father or mother must be put to death (Exodus 21:17)
Ye shall not oppress one another; but thou shalt fear thy God ( Leviticus 25:17)

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Testing the Martingale Betting System Online

.... Currently being Experimented .........

In a classic Roulette, what are the odds that the ball lands on 'a black number' 8 times in a row ? Or , if you keep betting on 'red', what are the chances that you loose 8 times in a row ?

I would say ... almost none. Now thats exactly what the trap is !

Welcome Martingale System . ( Read about this in wikipedia ) and then it takes a whole new dimension.

Simply put, Martingale Betting System is when you double your wager every time you loose, so ultimately , if you win (atleast once) , you get back all the wager money and a little extra ( the base amount ).

I wanted to test it out myself ... and that too with real money . But first a few rounds of trial and then with real money .

Conclusion with play-money :


Conclusion with real money :
1. You need to have a whole lot of money .
2. There should not be any table limit.
3. You should have the balls to keep going when you are loosing 7 times in a row and are forced to pool in all your money on the 8th - ( when the chances of you loosing is 50-50 ! )


Conclusion :

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Can you predict your emotional state when things have not yet happened ?

Here is the postulate - One cannot imagine one's emotional state of an instant which hasn't yet occurred, even if one is well aware of its imminence ( and has prepared himself for the consequences of the outcome )

Here are a couple of examples on different emotional instances which the subject is primed for.

Despair - tell a student that he is to fail in an exam , and tell that you are pretty sure of it. The student prepares for that event ( emotionally ). Even though he might imagine the mental state he might be when the results are out, he would not be able to predict the actual state of mind he might be in when he is encountered with the result .

Anger - Imagine that you are in a freakish road accident involving you and another driver, where you are not hurt. But the chassis of your car is mildly damaged. You can prime yourself of the emotional state you might be , in such a situation. And even though you are well prepared for that event, and you promise yourself that you would not loose your temper in that situation, you cannot but be angry - either at the other person involved in that accident or at the situation or in the worst case - at yourself.

How can I quantitatively measure/prove this hypothesis ?

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Hospitals should not show movies on their TV.

When a patient waits for his turn for consultation with the doctors, they usually wait in a room which has a TV which gives live feeds of movies / news / programs that are not screened for their content.

Recently I went to a hospital and was waiting for my turn. I was accompanying someone who had to go through one round of endoscopy ( a relatively painful experience ). The TV was showing something of a emotionally un-savory movie which had the usual dose of violence in it. ( Also death )

My postulation is that these programs ( violent / ones showing negative emotions like pain, loss and grief or visuals involving death/accidents) affect the patients in such a way as to increase their fear of pain of a treatment that is immediately due to them.

Here are a few suggestions :

1) The programs/shows shown on TV should not be live. ( Unless it is sports or music/entertainment channels )

2) For a child-care hospital , they could be cartoons.